Copper Shortage or Surplus? Banks Split on 2027 Outlook as Supply Risks and AI Demand Reshape Market
LONDON, November 14, 2026: The global copper market is facing an increasingly uncertain outlook for 2027, with major financial institutions divided over whether the metal will experience a supply shortage or a growing surplus. While some banks expect strong demand from artificial intelligence (AI), data centres, electrification and power infrastructure to push prices higher, other market forecasts point towards increased production and a potential surplus.
The contrasting outlooks have made copper one of the most closely watched commodities in global markets, particularly as manufacturers, mining companies and investors assess the long-term impact of the energy transition and technological expansion.
Goldman Sachs Raises 2027 Forecast but Warns of Downside Risks
Goldman Sachs has maintained an optimistic long-term outlook for copper, raising its average 2027 price forecast to $15,400 per metric tonne in October, compared with its earlier estimate of $13,800.
However, the bank has also highlighted significant downside risks. In a research note reported by Reuters on November 13, Goldman Sachs said investor positioning, rather than physical demand, was the biggest potential threat to its forecast.
Concerns surrounding AI-related investments and uncertainty over future US copper tariffs could weaken investor interest and reduce the amount of metal being stockpiled in the United States.
The bank indicated that copper could average around $14,500 per tonne in 2027 if tariff expectations weaken, with further downside possible if a significant portion of US inventories returns to international markets.
Bank of America Sees Strong Copper Prices in 2027
Bank of America has also maintained a constructive outlook for copper, forecasting an average London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price of approximately $15,500 per tonne in 2027.
Its bullish assessment is supported by expectations of strong infrastructure spending, electricity-grid expansion and increasing demand from emerging technologies.
The bank has also highlighted the impact of US copper stockpiling. Large quantities of refined copper have been shipped into the United States amid concerns over potential import tariffs, reducing the availability of metal in other international markets.
China’s investment in electricity infrastructure and the expansion of data centres are also expected to support long-term copper consumption.
International Copper Study Group Warns of Potential Surplus
In contrast to the bullish expectations of some financial institutions, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has projected a global refined copper surplus of approximately 377,000 tonnes in 2027.
According to its April 2026 forecast, global refined copper production is expected to increase by 3% in 2027, while refined copper usage is projected to grow by around 2%.
The anticipated increase in production could create additional supply in the international market, potentially limiting price gains.
However, the organisation has acknowledged that its projections remain subject to changes in production, consumption, trade flows and geopolitical conditions.
AI and Electrification Drive Long-Term Demand
Copper has become increasingly important to the global technology and energy industries because of its electrical conductivity, durability and widespread industrial applications.
The expansion of AI infrastructure is creating additional demand for copper-intensive data centres, power distribution systems, cooling equipment and electricity networks.
At the same time, electric vehicles, renewable energy projects, battery infrastructure and modernisation of electricity grids are contributing to the metal’s long-term demand outlook.
These developments have strengthened expectations that copper consumption could continue expanding even as traditional industrial demand experiences fluctuations.