China’s PrNd Metal Output Declines Again in October, Production Expected to Stabilise in November

Beijing: China’s praseodymium-neodymium (PrNd) metal production continued to decline in October 2026, extending the slowdown that began in September after five consecutive months of growth. However, industry analysts expect production to stabilise in November as manufacturers adjust output to changing raw material costs and demand conditions.

According to market analysis by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), China’s PrNd metal output fell approximately 3% month-on-month in September, marking the end of a sustained production recovery. The downward trend continued into October as pressure on processing margins and subdued downstream purchasing discouraged manufacturers from increasing production.

PrNd Metal Prices Retreat After October Peak

PrNd metal prices in China followed a peak-and-retreat pattern during October. After the National Day holiday, prices initially remained firm before climbing to a monthly high of approximately RMB 903,000 per tonne in mid-October.

However, prices weakened during the second half of the month as purchasing activity failed to match producers’ expectations. By October 30, prices had declined to approximately RMB 860,000–870,000 per tonne, according to SMM.

Despite the late-month correction, the average October price stood at RMB 888,600 per tonne, representing a 0.25% increase from September’s monthly average.

The decline in prices reflected limited buying interest from downstream manufacturers, particularly producers of rare-earth permanent magnets, who continued to purchase mainly to meet immediate requirements rather than build inventories.

Rising Production Costs Influence Manufacturing Decisions

Raw material prices have played a significant role in shaping China’s PrNd metal production outlook.

Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices declined from a monthly high of RMB 744,000 per tonne to approximately RMB 711,500 per tonne by the end of October. The 4.37% decrease exceeded the decline in PrNd metal prices over the same period.

Lower raw material costs helped reduce production expenses and improve processing margins for metal manufacturers. SMM’s estimates indicated that weekly net margins turned positive towards the end of October after remaining under pressure earlier in the month.

However, the improvement in profitability does not necessarily signal an immediate production recovery. Manufacturers must also consider order volumes, inventory levels and the willingness of downstream buyers to accept current prices.

The interaction between falling raw material costs, reduced production and weak purchasing activity will remain central to the market’s direction in November.

Permanent Magnet Demand Remains a Key Factor

PrNd metal is an important raw material for neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets, which are widely used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, industrial motors and various electronic applications.

Demand from these industries plays a crucial role in determining production schedules and purchasing decisions across China’s rare-earth supply chain.

Although manufacturing schedules for permanent magnets indicated potential improvement during October, actual buying activity remained subdued. Many magnet producers continued to follow a just-in-time purchasing strategy, limiting large-volume orders and inventory accumulation.

This cautious approach has restricted the market’s ability to absorb additional material and has contributed to the recent weakness in PrNd metal prices.

A sustained increase in orders from electric vehicle manufacturers, industrial motor producers and other end users could improve demand visibility and encourage metal producers to increase output.

November Production Expected to Stabilise

Market participants expect China’s PrNd metal production to stabilise in November, although a strong rebound remains uncertain.

Improved processing margins could reduce the incentive for manufacturers to maintain production cuts. However, the recovery will depend on whether downstream orders improve sufficiently to support higher operating rates.

Three factors are expected to influence the market in the coming weeks:

• Raw material availability: The restart of some previously idle rare-earth separation plants could increase oxide supplies and influence production costs.
• Downstream purchasing: Stronger orders from permanent magnet manufacturers would provide a more reliable basis for higher metal production.
• Processing margins: Continued improvements in profitability could encourage manufacturers to resume or increase output, while renewed cost pressure could lead to further reductions.

According to SMM’s assessment, prices could remain under downward pressure in November if demand stays weak and additional oxide supplies push production costs lower. Stabilisation in output therefore does not necessarily imply an immediate recovery in prices.

Global Rare-Earth Supply Chain in Focus

China plays a central role in the global rare-earth industry, particularly in the processing of materials used to manufacture high-performance permanent magnets.

Changes in domestic production can influence raw material availability, pricing and procurement strategies for manufacturers in China and overseas.

The latest decline in PrNd metal output highlights the sensitivity of the market to processing economics and downstream demand. Although lower production can help limit oversupply, weak purchasing activity may continue to constrain prices until end-user orders improve.

International buyers will also monitor China’s rare-earth export trends. The country shipped approximately 4,269.8 tonnes of rare earths in September 2026, down 9.8% from August but up 6.7% year-on-year, according to Chinese customs data reported by Reuters. These figures cover rare earths as a broader category rather than PrNd metal alone.

Outlook

China’s PrNd metal industry is entering November with production under pressure, prices retreating from their October peak and downstream buyers maintaining a cautious approach.

While improved processing margins could help stabilise output, a sustained recovery will depend on stronger demand from permanent magnet manufacturers and end-user industries.

For the global rare-earth market, developments in Chinese production, oxide availability and permanent magnet orders will remain important indicators of pricing trends in the coming weeks.