London, September 22, 2026: Rising oil prices linked to the conflict in Iran are reshaping the global electric-vehicle market, with high petrol and diesel costs encouraging consumers in several regions to consider electric vehicles. The shift could have significant implications for demand for key metals such as copper, lithium and nickel, which are essential to EVs and their batteries.
Global new-energy vehicle sales increased by about 4% year-on-year between January and August, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. However, growth varies considerably by region. European EV sales rose 36% year-on-year in August, while sales outside the major U.S., Chinese and European markets have reportedly doubled so far this year.
China’s EV market has also remained relatively resilient despite a broader slowdown in its automobile sector. New-energy vehicles accounted for about 65% of China’s passenger-vehicle market in August, while Chinese automakers continue to expand exports to overseas markets.
Higher fuel prices are also changing the economics of EV ownership. Analysts at Wood Mackenzie say battery-electric vehicles have already reached cost parity with conventional internal-combustion vehicles on a total-cost-of-ownership basis in China. Lower-priced Chinese EV exports could further narrow the cost gap in other Asian markets.
Pressure on Critical Metals
A faster transition to electric mobility could place additional pressure on already stretched mineral supply chains. Wood Mackenzie estimates that an accelerated EV scenario could increase copper demand by an additional 2% compared with its baseline scenario. Meeting that demand would require annual new copper-mine capacity to rise from a historical average of about 850,000 tonnes to 960,000 tonnes between 2025 and 2040.
Lithium could face an even sharper demand increase, with the same scenario implying 14% additional demand. China’s major role in the global lithium supply chain could also complicate efforts to expand supply rapidly.
The analysis highlights a potential second-order effect from the current energy shock: higher oil prices could encourage faster electrification, which in turn could increase demand for metals needed for batteries, motors and charging infrastructure. Whether that produces sustained shortages or price volatility will depend heavily on how quickly mining and processing capacity expands.