Solar Power Leaps Key Cost Barrier In Electricity-Deprived Nations

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US President Donald Trump sure knows how to pick ’em. His “Energy Dominance” policy purposefully squeezes out wind and solar power while embracing practically everything else under the sun. Still, the killer combo of solar plus storage continues to dominate new capacity additions in the US, and a new analysis of overseas markets indicates that solar is putting the squeeze on fossil fuels, too, ultimately pushing US fossil energy producers out of the export market.

Solar Power Is More Economical From The Get-Go

A new report from the firm Ember provides fresh worry for US fossil energy producers hoping to lean on the export market to sustain themselves. Ember produced the report for the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a 74-member consortium long underserved by the global fossil economy. Combined, the 74 nations in CVF account for more than 20% of the world’s population but less than 5% of GDP and electricity demand.

“These nations represent three-quarters of the world’s population living on less than 1 MWh of electricity per capita,” Ember emphasizes.

President Trump’s war in Iran hasn’t made things any easier for the electricity-deprived nations of the world. While the dragged-out conflict may have mollified Trump’s fear fo the Epstein scandal, the war has also pushed fuel prices up.

Against this backdrop, Ember calculates that the up-front cost of solar power has sunk to the point where solar is more economical and accessible than coal or natural gas. That’s a big switcheroo from years past, when the high up-front cost of solar inhibited uptake. Power purchase agreements, loans, leases, and other financing tools have helped reduce up-front costs for both large and small-scale solar, but the ability to undercut fossil energy on cost marks a giant step forward for CVF nations.

“The difference today is that a credible alternative development path exists: electrotech is now cheaper, widely available, easily scalable, and offers the prospect of energy independence and abundance to drive growth,” Ember summarizes.

“For the first time, developing countries can build a cheaper, more reliable energy path to prosperity on their own terms,” the firm adds for good measure.

$500 Million More For 500 More Megawatts Of Solar Power In The US

Notably, the Ember analysis (more details here) indicates that solar exports could be a growth opportunity for US manufacturers. “In 8 out of 10 CVF countries, cumulative solar imports since 2017 are at least three times higher than official installed capacity,” Ember notes, adding that approximately 50% of CVF nations have already leapfrogged over the US in solar penetration, as measured by electricity demand.

That’s…interesting! Solar manufacturing in the US is on the uptick, despite last year’s sharp U-turn in federal energy policy. In fact, some domestic solar stakeholders are celebrating Trump’s latest trade war maneuver for onshoring key steps in the solar supply chain.

Perhaps the next President to occupy the White House will build on the onshoring trend by supporting policies that provide new growth opportunities for domestic solar exporters, returning to those heady days of the mid-to-late 20th century when the US dominated the global solar industry.

In the meantime, the current President’s pricey, peevish war on wind power has had some effect, but the demand for solar power keeps rolling on. In the latest development, the Aligned Climate Capital has announced the first close of its ASP7 (Aligned Solar Partners 7) fund, with “7” referring to the firm’s seventh infrastructure fund since 2018.

ASP7 focuses on the distributed solar and storage market, which includes the booming community solar sector. Unlike large-scale, centralized solar power plants, distributed solar projects typically provide direct benefits to local ratepayers in the form of reduced electricity bills while supporting improved grid resiliency, too. Local benefits can also include solar grazing and other agrivoltaic add-ons.

“ASP7 is targeting $500 million to acquire construction-ready solar and storage projects sourced from development partners, finance their build-out, and manage the assets through operations,” Aligned explains, noting that it has scoped potential projects for ASP7 that top a cumulative total of 500 megawatts.

“The pipeline builds on Aligned’s existing relationships with development partners and reflects the scale of projects the firm is evaluating for deployment through the strategy,” the firm explains, adding that the first close of ASP 7 includes existing investors including the Bush Foundation.

The Bush Foundation — Wait, What?

If you’re thinking that’s “Bush” as in the Bush fossil energy family that occupied the White House not once but twice, guess again. That’s Bush as in Archie and Edyth Bush of Minnesota. They launched the Bush Foundation in 1953 with seeding from their stock in 3M, where Archie Bush made his career.

“We believe investment capital can support meaningful climate solutions while advancing our long-term investment objectives,” explains Bush Foundation staff member Brendon Reay, who serves as Managing Director of Investments.

“Our investment in Aligned’s distributed solar and storage infrastructure strategy reflects our commitment to impactful sustainability solutions,” Reay added in a press statement.

The Bush Foundation’s primary focus is on Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota, a region that includes 23 Native American nations. However, the organization’s interest in Aligned extends across the country.

Since 2018, Aligned’s ASP program has acquired 56 projects in 10 states leading up to June of this year, cumulatively generating more than 218 gigawatt-hours. “Recent activity across the platform includes construction financing for two Delaware community solar projects and the acquisition of a community solar project in Illinois,” Aligned adds.

More Solar Power, STAT!

Over and above competing against other energy resources on cost, the solar-plus-storage combo maintains a speed-to-power advantage that its primary competitor, natural gas, just can’t beat — without trucking in air-poisoning temporary fixes, that is (see: Musk; Alabama). A persistent, years-long manufacturing backlog on the gas turbine side is holding back gas, while coal faces structural problems of its own including debilitating disease and die-offs among the coal workforce.

As Ember points out, scalability is also on the side of solar power, with plug-and-play balcony solar and rooftop solar both showing signs of new and continued activity in the US.

On the balcony solar side, this morning New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill is preparing to sign a new bill into law that will help make plug-and-play solar more accessible to renters and HOA households as well as individual home owners.

The rooftop solar business also got a fresh jolt of adrenaline in August, when Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger signed off on a bulk buying partnership with the organization Solar United Neighbors.

Photo: Aligned Climate Capital has launched a new $500 million fund to stimulate more activity in the distributed solar power and energy storage field, despite the sharp U-turn in federal energy policy (community solar project courtesy of Aligned via businesswire.com).