Canada’s Critical Minerals Ambitions Hindered by Large Capital Shortfall, RBC Warns
Canada’s drive to become a global supplier of critical minerals — those essential for electric vehicles, clean energy technologies and advanced electronics — is being slowed by a significant capital investment gap, according to a new report from the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC). The analysis highlights that over the past 25 years, Canadian mining companies have directed only about 11 percent of total mining capital toward pure-play critical mineral projects, leaving the country trailing other resource-rich competitors as global demand accelerates.
More than C$700 billion (approximately US $512 billion) has been raised in Canadian mining equity and mergers and acquisitions since 2000, but roughly 70 percent of that funding flowed into traditional sectors such as gold and other precious metals, according to RBC’s review of S&P Capital IQ and LSEG data. By contrast, nations like Australia have invested more than twice as much capital into their critical minerals sectors during the same period, allowing them to better position themselves in emerging supply chains.
The gap matters as global energy transitions increase demand for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, graphite, and rare earth elements. The International Energy Agency projects that the critical minerals industry could grow two to three times by 2040, requiring an estimated $500–$600 billion in new investment. Canada holds ample deposits of these resources but currently supplies only about 2 percent of global output. If all identified projects move forward at full capacity, this could rise to 14 percent over the next 15 years.
Ottawa is attempting to close the financing gap. Around 67 critical minerals projects, representing C$72.4 billion in potential investment by 2034, are planned or underway, according to federal project inventories. However, Canada still largely functions as a mine-and-ship jurisdiction, exporting raw concentrates rather than processing them domestically. This means much of the value — and jobs — associated with refining and manufacturing lies offshore, particularly in China, which currently controls about 70 percent of refining capacity for most critical minerals.
Industry observers and policy analysts argue that enhancing domestic refining infrastructure, attracting private capital, and offering targeted incentives will be key to closing the gap and securing Canada’s role in future global supply chains. Without such measures, experts warn the country may struggle to seize the economic and strategic opportunities presented by the clean energy transition.