September 29, 2026: Copper prices could rise by nearly 50% from current levels to around $22,050 per metric tonne by the second quarter of 2027, according to Deutsche Bank metals analyst Daniel Ghali. The forecast comes as historically low inventories, supply disruptions and aggressive stockpiling in the United States and China intensify competition for available copper.
Ghali described the current market as a potential “supply liquidity crisis,” with copper increasingly being redirected into strategic inventories rather than remaining readily available to industrial users. Deutsche Bank estimates that the US and China could collectively hold about 71% of global copper supply by the end of 2026 if current stockpiling trends continue.
Supply Pressure Could Deepen
The copper market is facing constraints at several stages of the supply chain. Mine disruptions and limited availability of copper concentrate have put pressure on refined production. In China, refined copper output in 2026 is expected to grow by only 3% to 3.4%, according to analysts cited by Reuters, which would represent the slowest growth in decades.
At the same time, copper demand is being supported by electricity-grid investment, renewable energy, infrastructure and the expansion of AI data centres. Deutsche Bank has also highlighted low ore grades, limited investment and long development timelines as structural constraints on future mine supply.
Global Users Could Face Shortages by 2028
Ghali estimates that if stockpiling continues at the current pace, copper available to users outside major stockpiling markets could potentially be exhausted by late 2028. However, the analyst expects higher prices themselves to provide a mechanism for correcting the imbalance.
As copper becomes more expensive, some industrial users could switch to aluminium, which is cheaper but generally less efficient as a conductor. Deutsche Bank says copper prices have not yet risen sufficiently to trigger widespread substitution.
The outlook underscores the growing importance of copper to the global energy and technology transition. However, the $22,050-per-tonne projection is a forecast rather than a certainty, and prices remain sensitive to Chinese demand, inventory movements, mine production and US trade policy.